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= Exercise 1: The Gumbel Distribution =   
= Exercise 1: The Gumbel Distribution =   
 
Let's go back to the end of Lecture 1.
In the spirit of the central limit theorem, you look for a scaling form: 
In the Gaussian case, expand <math>A(E)</math> around <math>a_M</math>:
 
<center> <math>Q_M(E) \sim \exp\left(-M P(E)\right) \sim \exp\left(-M e^{A(a_M) +A'(a_M)\cdot (E-a_M)}\right) </math> </center>
<center><math> E_{\min} = a_M + b_M z </math></center> 
Show that by setting  
 
<center> <math>a_M = E_{\min}^{\text{typ}}=-\sigma \sqrt{2 \log M} + \ldots \quad \text{and} \quad b_M = \frac{1}{A'(a_M)}= \frac{ \sigma}{\sqrt{2 \log M}}</math> </center>
 
 
The constants <math>a_M</math> and <math>b_M</math> absorb the dependence on <math>M</math>, while the random variable <math>z</math> is distributed according to a probability distribution that does not depend on <math>M</math>. 
 
In the Gaussian case, expand <math>A(E)</math> around <math>a_M</math>:  
 
By setting
 
<center><math>
a_M = E_{\min}^{\text{typ}} = -\sigma \sqrt{2 \log M} + \ldots
\qquad\text{and}\qquad
b_M = \frac{1}{A'(a_M)} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{2 \log M}}
</math></center>
 
you find   
you find   


<center><math>
<center><math>

Revision as of 12:50, 31 August 2025

In the following exercises, we will use the notation from extreme value statistics as introduced in the course.

Exercise 1: The Gumbel Distribution

Let's go back to the end of Lecture 1. In the Gaussian case, expand A(E) around aM:

QM(E)∼exp⁡(−MP(E))∼exp⁡(−MeA(aM)+A′(aM)⋅(E−aM))

Show that by setting

aM=Emintyp=−σ2log⁡M+…andbM=1A′(aM)=σ2log⁡M

you find

exp⁡(A(aM))=1MandQM(E)≡Prob(Emin>E)∼exp⁡[−exp⁡(E−aMbM)]


Therefore, the variable z=(E−aM)/bM is distributed according to an M-independent distribution.

It is possible to generalize this result and classify the scaling forms into the Gumbel universality class:

  • Characteristics:
    • Applies when the tails of p(E) decay faster than any power law.
    • Examples: the Gaussian case discussed here or exponential distributions p(E)=exp⁡(E)withE∈(−∞,0).
  • Scaling Form:
P(z)=exp⁡(z)exp⁡(−ez)

esercizio 2: The weakest link

Exercise 3: number of states above the minimum

Definition of n(x):Given a realization of the random energies E1,E2,…,EM, define

n(x)=#{i∣Emin<Ei<Emin+x}

that is, the number of random variables lying above the minimum

Emin

but less than

Emin+x

. This is itself a random variable. We are interested in its mean value:

n(x)‾=∑k=0M−1kProb[n(x)=k]

The Final goal is to show that, for large M (when the extremes are described by the Gumbel distribution), you have:

n(x)‾=ex/bM−1

Step 1: Exact manipulations: You start from the exact expression for the probability of k states in the interval:

Prob[n(x)=k]=M(M−1k)∫−∞∞dEp(E)[P(E+x)−P(E)]k[1−P(E+x)]M−k−1

To compute n(x)‾, you must sum over k. Use the identity

∑k=0M−1k(M−1k)(A−B)kBM−1−k=(A−B)ddA∑k=0M−1(M−1k)(A−B)kBM−1−k=(M−1)(A−B)AM−2

to arrive at the form:

n(x)‾=M(M−1)∫−∞∞dEp(E)[P(E+x)−P(E)](1−P(E))M−2=M∫−∞∞dE[P(E+x)−P(E)]dQM−1(E)dE

where QM−1(E)=[1−P(E)]M−1.

Step 2: the Gumbel limit So far, no approximations have been made. To proceed, we use QM−1(E)≈QM(E) and its asymptotics Gumbel form:

dQM−1(E)dEdE∼exp⁡(E−aMbM)exp⁡[−exp⁡(E−aMbM)]dEbM=eze−ezdz

where z=(E−aM)/bM.

The main contribution to the integral comes from the region near E≈aM, where P(E)≈e(E−aM)/bM/M.


Compute the integral and verify that you obtain:

n(x)‾=(ex/bM−1)∫−∞∞dze2z−ez=ex/bM−1